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• Ceferino, L., Yi, Y., Li, W., Merino, Y., Moya, L., Shoaf, K., So, E. (In Review). A Performance-Based Earthquake Fatality Modeling Framework Using Collapse Volume Ratios. [Preprint]

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• Negri, R., Xu, S., Dragomir, C., Figueira, I., Porfiri, M., Ceferino, L. (In review). When Recovery Becomes Infeasible: A Markov Model of Housing Abandonment Risk in Flood-Prone Areas. [Preprint]

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• Arora, P., Ceferino, L., Dobler, G.  (In review). A Novel Framework for Detecting Disaster-Induced Power Outages Globally via Satellite Observations. [Preprint]

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• Houng, S.E., Ceferino, L., Abrahamson, N. (In review). Fast Propagation of Epistemic Uncertainty in Seismic Hazard via Adaptive Importance Sampling.  [Preprint] 

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• Negri, R., Dragomir, C., Xu, S., Porfiri, M., Ceferino, L. (In review). Permanent Relocation Into and Out of Areas Exposed to Natural Hazards: a Multidisciplinary Review of the Literature. [Preprint]

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• Espinoza, B., Moya, L., Ceferino, L. (Accepted). Evaluating the Seismic Damage Dynamics of Buildings’ Vertical Growth in Lima, Peru. Earthquake Spectra.  

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• Arora, P., Ceferino, L. (Accepted). The Feasibility of Energy Communities for Hurricane Resilience. ASCE Natural Hazards Reviews [Preprint] 

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• Yang, S., Ceferino, L., Zhang, L., Gu, C., Guo, T., Kondo, G. (2026). When Agents Learn to Think: Large Language Model-Enhanced Agent-Based Modeling for Crowd Evacuation in Disaster Scenarios. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, (269) 112056.  [Link]

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• Zhang, Z., Li, Q., Sun, Q., Ceferino, L. (2026).  Using virtual reality to study human response to flood risk across controlled experiments. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, (132) 105956. [Preprint] [Link]

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• Boldini, A., De Lellis, P., Imperatore, S., Das, R., Ceferino, L., Heitor, M., Porfiri, M. (2026). Predicting the role of inequalities on human mobility patterns. PNAS Nexus, 5 (1), pgaf407. [Link]

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• Dávila, C., Estrada, M., Ceferino, L., Morales, J., García, F., Koshimura, S. (2025). Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment Based on Time and Space Dependent Rupture Analysis of the Central Peruvian Subduction Zone. Journal of Disaster Research, 20 (6): 922-935. [Link]

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• Ceferino, L., Kukunoor, J., Zhao, C., Mao, D., Xu, X., Wu, J., Zsarnócsay, A. (2025) Accessing Acute Care Hospitals in the San Francisco Bay after a Major Hayward Earthquake, Nat Communications ,16, 9328. [Link]

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• Mesta, C., Ceferino, L., Cremen, G., Galasso, C. (2025). Investigating post-earthquake hospital transportation for casualties through agent-based modeling. Earthquake Spectra, 41 (3): 2028-2059. [Link] 

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• Houng, S., Ceferino, L. (2025). Fast Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Through Adaptive Importance Sampling. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 115(2):646-663 [Preprint] [Link] 

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• Negri, R., Ceferino, L., A., Cremen, G. (2025). Prioritizing Urban Areas for Hyper-local Flood Sensors using Stakeholder Elicitation and Risk Analysis. ASCE Natural Hazards Review, 26(3). [Preprint] [Link] ​​​

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• Ceferino, L., Merino, Y., Pizarro, S., Moya, L., Ozturk, B. (2024). Toward Engineering the Earthquake Response and the Survival Chain. Nature Communications, 15 (4298). [Link]

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• Merino, Y., Ceferino, L., Pizarro, S., de la Llera, J. C. (2024). Modeling Hospital Resources based on Global Epidemiology after Earthquake-Related Disasters. Earthquake Spectra, 40(4), 2402-2429. [Preprint] [Link] 

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• Arora, P., Ceferino, L. (2024). A Quasi-Binomial Regression Model for Hurricane-Induced Power Outages during Early Warning.  ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 10 (2). [Preprint][Link] 

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• Liu, C., Macedo, J., Kottke, A., Ceferino, L. (2024). Impact of Ergodic and Non-ergodic Ground Motion Estimation on the Earthquake Resilience of Shared Distributed Energy Resource Systems. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 10 (1). [Link] ​​

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• Avraam, C., Ceferino, L., Dvorkin, Y. (2023) Operational and Economy-Wide Impacts of Compound Cyberattacks and Extreme Weather Events on Electric Power Networks. Applied Energy, 349, 121577 [Preprint] [Link] 

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• Ceferino, L., & Lin, N. (2023) Hurricane Risk of Solar Generation in the United States. ASCE Natural Hazards Review, 24 (4) 04023029, 1-12 [Link] [Preprint].

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• Arora, P., Ceferino, L. (2023). "Probabilistic and Machine Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Power Outage Prediction due to Extreme Events." Natural Hazards Earth Systems Science, 23, 1665–1683. [Link] 

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• Ceferino, L., Lin, N., & Xi, D. (2023). Bayesian Updating of Solar Panel Fragility Curves and Implications of Higher Panel Strength for Solar Generation Resilience. Reliability Engineering and Structural Safety, 229, 108896. [Link] 

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• Alisjahbana, I., Ceferino, L., and Kiremidjian, A. (2023). “Prioritized reconstruction of healthcare facilities after earthquakes based on recovery of emergency services,” Risk Analysis, 43 (9), 1763-1778. [Link]​​

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• Mota, R., Ferreira, N., Silva, J. D., Horga, M., Lage, M., Ceferino, L., Alim, U., Sharlin, E. & Miranda, F. (2022) A Comparison of Spatiotemporal Visualizations for 3D Urban Analytics. IEEE transactions on visualization and computer graphics, PP. [Link]

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• Hariri-Ardebili, M.A.; Sattar, S.; Johnson, K.; Clavin, C.; Fung, J.; Ceferino, L (2022). A Perspective towards Multi-Hazard Resilient Systems: Natural Hazards and Pandemics. Sustainability, 14, 4508. [Link]​

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• Ceferino, L., Lin, N., & Xi, D. (2022). Stochastic Modeling of Solar Irradiance during Hurricanes. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Analysis, 36, 2681–2693. [Link] ​

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• Ceferino, L., Galvez, P., Ampuero, J., Kiremidjian, A., Deierlein, G., & Villegas-Lanza, J. C. (2021). Bayesian parameter estimation for space and time interacting earthquake rupture model using historical and physics-based simulated earthquake catalogs. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 111 (6), 3356-3373 [Link] [Preprint][Data+Code]

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• Patel, S., Ceferino, L., Liu, C., Kiremidjian, A., & Rajagopal, R. (2021). The Disaster Resilience Value of Shared Rooftop Solar in Residential Communities. Earthquake Spectra, 37 (4), 2638-2661 [Link][Preprint][Code]​

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• Ceferino, L., Mitrani, J., Kiremidjian, A., Deierlein, G., & Bambarén, C. (2020). Effective Plans for Hospital System Response to Earthquake Emergencies. Nature Communications, 11, 4325 [Link][Data+Code]

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• Ceferino, L., Kiremidjian, A., & Deierlein, G. (2020). Probabilistic space- and time-interaction modeling of mainshock earthquake rupture occurrence. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 110 (5), 2498–2518. [Link][Preprint] [Data+Code]​

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• Markhvida, M., Ceferino, L., and Baker, J. W. (2018). Modeling spatially correlated spectral accelerations at multiple periods using principal component analysis and geostatistics. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, 47(5), 1107–1123. [Link] [Simlation code] [Correlation model]

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• Ceferino, Luis, Anne Kiremidjian, and Gregory Deierlein. (2018) "Regional Multiseverity Casualty Estimation Due to Building Damage Following a Mw 8.8 Earthquake Scenario in Lima, Peru." Earthquake Spectra 34 (4), 1739-1761. [Link] [Data+Code]

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• Ceferino, Luis, Anne Kiremidjian, and Greg Deierlein. "Probabilistic model for regional multiseverity casualty estimation due to building damage following an earthquake." ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering. 4 (3), 04018023. [Link] ​

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• Noh, H.-Y., Kiremidjian, A., Ceferino, L., & So, E. (2017). Bayesian Updating of Earthquake Vulnerability Functions with Application to Mortality Rates. Earthquake Spectra, 33 (3), 1173–1189. [Link] 

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• Lallemant, D., Burton, H., Ceferino, L., Bullock, Z., & Kiremidjian, A. (2017). A Framework and Case Study for Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment of Incrementally Expanding Buildings. Earthquake Spectra, 33 (4), 1369–1384. [Link]​

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• Zavala, C., Gibu, P., Lavado, L., Taira, J., Cardenas, L. and Ceferino, L., 2013. Cyclic behavior of low ductility walls considering perpendicular action. Journal of Disaster Research, 8 (2), 312-319 [Link]