DISASTER RISK ANALYSIS LAB
Probabilistic modeling and decision support for resilient infrastructure systems
Mission
The Disaster Risk Analysis Lab develops probabilistic models and decision tools to improve the resilience of infrastructure systems under extreme events. Our research combines risk analysis, structural and network modeling, artificial intelligence, and uncertainty quantification, with applications to earthquakes, hurricanes, and cascading infrastructure disruptions. Our research is supported by organizations including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and PG&E; see the Research page for current projects.
Research Team
The Disaster Risk Analysis Lab is directed by Luis Ceferino (CV), Assistant Professor in the Civil and Environmental Engineering Department at the University of California, Berkeley.
The lab includes postdoctoral researchers, Ph.D. students, and undergraduate researchers working on probabilistic risk analysis and infrastructure resilience; see our Team tab for current and past group members.
Opportunities
We are always excited to connect with motivated students interested in probabilistic modeling, infrastructure resilience, artificial intelligence, and decision-making under uncertainty; see our Opportunities Tab for current openings.
Recent publications
When Recovery Becomes Infeasible: A Markov Model of Housing Abandonment Risk in Flood-Prone Areas. [Preprint]
A Novel Framework for Detecting Disaster-Induced Power Outages Globally via Satellite Observations. [Preprint]
Fast Propagation of Epistemic Uncertainty in Seismic Hazard via Adaptive Importance Sampling. [Preprint]
Recent News
November 2025: Luis Ceferino visited Universidad Panamericana (Mexico) and enjoyed engaging with faculty and M.S. students on PBEE, research opportunities, and emerging directions in earthquake engineering.
November 2025: Luis Ceferino presented the group’s latest work on disaster resilience at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln and had productive discussions with faculty about future research directions.
August 2025: Luis Cossio joins our research group as a Ph.D. student. He holds a B.S. degree from Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería (Peru) in Civil and Environmental Engineering. Welcome!